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Brow business predictions

Dec 20, 2023, Update: Dec 20, 2023, author: Powderbrows.com / Holistic PMU
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"Where is the brow industry headed next? Amidst what some artists are calling the PMU Apocalypse, the future seems shrouded in uncertainty. In these rapidly changing times, identifying the next big trend in brow artistry is akin to a million-dollar question. This article explores the evolving landscape of permanent makeup, offering insights and predictions to guide artists and enthusiasts alike. We explore potential pathways and opportunities, revealing where you might want to place your bets in the dynamic world of brow pigmentation."

1. Background


This article draws upon insights from interviews with 37 leading pigmentation artists, each skilled in at least two major brow services: microblading, powder brows, and hairstrokes. Among these professionals, 28 are based in countries within the European Union, 7 in the UK, and 2 in the US. The research projects incorporating their perspectives spanned from 2021 to 2023 and are largely still ongoing.

The focus of this article centers on an analysis of various brow pigmentation techniques, exploring their position in their respective lifespans. The following sections concentrate on this analysis, offering more detailed perspectives on the evolution and future trends in brow pigmentation at the current moment.

It pays off to pay attention to the past

In "The Life of Reason: Reason in Common Sense," published in 1905, George Santayana wrote: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” The situation is similar now, and the ones who miss the moment will suffer. Let us first take a look at the history.

2. Microblading


The pigmentation industry experienced an unprecedented revolution with the emergence of microblading in 2014. This technique rapidly dominated the world of semi-permanent makeup, bringing about a transformative shift. Its rise was so meteoric that any resistance from practitioners of other techniques, like traditional powder brows or shading methods such as cashmere or fully tattooed brows, proved absolutely futile. There were phases when the popularity and demand for microblading services doubled every month, underscoring its overwhelming success. Why did this happen? Many artists who helped to compose this article were in the middle of all that and have been involved with modern-day microblading since its inception. 

Reasons for Extreme Success

When experts reflect on the reasons behind microblading's success, they often point to various factors. For an extended period, the prevailing opinion was that microblading had no significant flaws or vulnerabilities and there were only positive aspects. Its strengths were numerous, with the following attributes being the most significant contributors to its success: Simplicity of learning, extremely low entrance cost, and demand for natural-looking “pattern” brows.

Simplicity in Learning

While learning microblading is certainly not easy, its appeal lies in its simplicity. It's important to distinguish between “simple” and “easy.” Acquiring any new skill, including microblading, poses challenges, and our extensive research shows that the learning experience varies widely among students, often unrelated to their previous skills or experiences.

For some, the challenge might be mapping the brow accurately, while others might struggle to understand colorimetry theory. Many find mastering the patterns most difficult, and some experience anxiety associated with physically performing the procedure, especially when it involves making skin incisions or encountering blood. These varied challenges indicate that learning microblading is not universally “easy.”

However, the " simplicity " aspect set microblading training apart and contributed to its widespread popularity. A well-structured training program, guided by a competent trainer, can lead students of varying abilities to a point where they can satisfactorily perform microblading procedures. This doesn't necessarily mean they'll immediately gain clients or produce outstanding results. Instead, it indicates a level of proficiency where they can correctly execute the procedure. Despite the different challenges faced by students, this simplicity in learning made microblading an accessible and appealing skill to acquire. In other words, the training could practically always guarantee, that if you pay the fee, you get the skills necessary to perform the procedure. You may need to practice excessively, but becoming an artist was a function of a certain amount of known variables.

Cost Factors

The affordability of starting and maintaining a microblading practice has played a significant role in its explosion in popularity since late 2014. This affordability aspect challenged the norms in the semi-permanent makeup industry, which had been shrouded in mystique and perceived as a high-cost venture. In other words, the PMU industry has set up the ideal stage for microblading to disrupt it because it had gone “too far,” presenting the brow pigmentation procedure as a “skill that took years to acquire.” 

In other words, for years, industry leaders positioned pigmentation as a niche skill akin to medical treatments, accessible only to a select few who could invest heavily in training and equipment. This elitist approach created a perception that semi-permanent makeup was beyond the reach of many aspiring artists. Microblading shattered this illusion by demonstrating that the procedure could be performed effectively without prohibitive start-up or operational costs.

Thus, microblading opened the field to a broader demographic. It showed that individuals without extensive experience or investment could achieve results that were more attractive in natural appearance and shape and objectively superior to traditional pigmentation methods rooted in tattooing. This opened doors for younger artists to compete effectively with industry veterans and win in every aspect. It is not an exaggeration when one makes a claim that “microblading did change the semi-permanent makeup industry forever.”

The start-up costs for microblading were significantly lower than other career paths in the semi-permanent makeup field. The essentials - blades, pigments, and disposables - were relatively inexpensive, especially compared to the investment required for pigmentation machines and their associated overpriced cartridges. This aspect of microblading was particularly appealing as it allowed artists to enter the field without the substantial financial outlay previously required.

Furthermore, microblading signified breaking away from traditional marketing structures. This means that microblading’s rise challenged the prevailing business models in the industry, which often resembled multi-level marketing schemes where artists became de facto sales representatives for specific brands and their expensive products. Microblading presented an alternative to this model, emphasizing skill and artistry over brand allegiance and expensive equipment, democratizing the field and making it more accessible to a wider range of aspiring artists. That was a phenomenon that could not simply be reversed.

Demand for natural "lines"

Another crucial factor in the remarkable surge of microblading's popularity was the market's readiness for a new approach to brow pigmentation. Customers had grown accustomed to the heavily filled, dark brows of previous pigmentation methods, which, by modern standards, often seemed unnatural and ridiculously heavy.

The preference for more natural-looking brows created an optimal environment for microblading to thrive. As customers became aware of the possibility of achieving a more natural brow appearance through microblading, the technique's demand skyrocketed. The contrast between the "old" heavy brows and the subtle, lifelike results offered by microblading made the choice clear for many seeking brow enhancements.

The technique's arrival at a time when there was a clear shift in preference towards naturalness played a significant role in its rapid adoption. Customers began to recognize microblading as the superior choice for brow pigmentation, leading to a widespread and sustained demand for the service. The widespread recognition of microblading as the “new number one technique” fueled a paradigm shift in brow aesthetics to a degree where even random pigmentation procedures started selling manifold better in regions where microblading had not yet been actually introduced if the artist just renamed those “microblading.” 

Thus, this unprecedented transformation in customer preferences and the subsequent rise of microblading heralded a tectonic shift in the semi-permanent makeup industry. It departed from the traditional, heavier brow styles and set a new standard for natural-looking, aesthetically pleasing brow enhancements. This transformation elevated microblading to a prominent position in the industry and influenced broader trends in cosmetic brow treatments.

Evolutions in Microblading Technique

Despite its popularity, microblading faced challenges, particularly in how the lines healed. Often, lines blended into a single color during the healing process, losing their initial distinctiveness and sharpness. This issue was primarily due to the depth of blade penetration, especially when young artists pushed the blade too deep into the skin, reaching the hypodermis. This over-penetration and the use of organic pigments often resulted in blurred lines.

Despite these setbacks, clients were generally forgiving, partly because artists had informed them about potential limitations and challenges. Many clients attributed the blurring to their skin's unique properties or post-procedure care, which helped maintain the technique's popularity.

By 2016, many professional practitioners realized the issue with depth and began performing microblading with a lighter touch, "brushing" the skin and using “tapping” techniques rather than pressing deeply. This adjustment reduced skin trauma and improved the visibility and sharpness of microblading lines after healing and the initial touch-ups. This evolution marked a significant improvement in the technique, aligning outcomes more closely with the initial promises of microblading. In other words, the third year of microblading with the improved techniques marked the achievement of the initial promised results. Thus, the trajectory of microblading continued to go up and to the right.

Nanoblading as a term. "Nanoblading" emerged as a marketing term for using finer needles. Although it didn't fundamentally differ from traditional microblading, the label implied a more refined technique. "Nanoblading" essentially referred to blades composed of needles with slightly smaller diameters, offering the potential for even finer, more precise lines. While not a revolutionary change, this evolution represented an incremental improvement in the microblading technique, contributing to its ongoing popularity and client satisfaction.

The financial triumph

The refinement in microblading techniques improved client satisfaction and opened doors for financial success for artists. Documented cases (we have fact-checked this) reveal some microblading practitioners earning more than $50,000 monthly with just the procedures. This extraordinary income resulted from their dedication and insane work hours, often involving seven-day work weeks and back-to-back appointments from morning to night. These figures are not speculative but verified accounts of what some practitioners were able to achieve.

It can be said that the success of microblading extended beyond individual artists to the academies that offered training in this technique. These academies profited from teaching microblading skills and capitalized on selling related products, creating multiple revenue streams. The financial success of these training centers was sometimes so substantial that owners could make extravagant purchases, such as buying luxury vehicles like Bentleys outright in the second half of 2015. This level of financial achievement is not a hyperbole but a fact-checked and verified reality, demonstrating the significant impact microblading had on the beauty and semi-permanent makeup industry.

3. Powder Brows


Long-Standing Presence and Steady Evolution

Powder Brows, a technique ingrained in the history of semi-permanent makeup, has evolved over decades. The early versions of Powder Brows, reminiscent of tattooed brows from the latter half of the last century, were quite different from the refined techniques we see today.

The advent of microblading in the industry was a wake-up call for traditional powder brows artists. They found themselves in an expanded, more competitive market, which necessitated rapidly adapting their techniques. Unlike microblading, the evolution of powder brows wasn't marked by explosive growth or sudden popularity. Instead, it was characterized by steady, incremental improvements over time.

Key developments in powder brows

In response to changing market demands, several advancements occurred in the field of Powder Brows.

  • Improved Shape. The focus shifted towards creating brow shapes more aligned with the client's facial features and skull structure. The new approach emphasized personalized designs rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.
  • Refined technique. The earlier versions of Powder Brows were often painful and left long-lasting, often overly intense, results. Modern techniques are gentler, causing less discomfort and offering subtler, more natural-looking outcomes.
  • Innovations in pigments. There was a significant move towards using inorganic and mineral pigments. These newer pigments allowed for a broader range of colors and shades that eventually disappeared from the skin. The use of these pigments also contributed to the lighter and more natural appearance of Powder Brows, with the principle ideological shift turning it from a “permanent” solution to a more “temporary.”
  • Reduced Pressure and depth. The application process became less aggressive. Artists began applying less pressure during the procedure, which reduced the pain clients experienced and led to quicker healing times and more pigment ending up in the papillary dermis. 

These developments transformed Powder Brows from a painful, permanent-looking procedure to a more client-friendly, adaptable, semi-permanent technique.

Ombre Powder Brows

Although there is no technical difference, the term “Powder Brows” started receiving many prefixes. The most well-known, which gained global recognition among artists, is "Ombre Powder Brows" or "Ombre Brows." Some practitioners of powder brows claim that "ombre powder" is lighter, with a more extensive gradient and dusty effect than traditional powdering, but these claims are largely subjective and used for marketing purposes because there are no definite and universally accepted distinctions.

However, a trend towards an even softer and lighter powdering led practitioners to develop a softer style at the brow head and upper arch. This approach is often called "Soft Ombre Brows" or "Soft Powder Brows.”

The Most Important Strength

The strength of powder brows over other techniques lies in their universality. Powder brows can be applied to virtually any skin type, at any age, with reasonably low intervention. Moreover, the fact that a client has had previous brow treatments is not an obstacle to achieving excellent results. It can be said that the best aspect of powder brows, which still holds true, is their versatility, particularly if the artist is skilled and well-trained.

Combo Brows

The emergence of Combo Brows was significantly influenced by the need for powder brows artists to adapt and learn microblading techniques to remain competitive in the evolving pigmentation industry. However, it's important to note that "Combo Brows" doesn't exclusively refer to just the combination of microblading and powder brows. Rather, it encompasses a broader range of styles, representing the fusion of various pigmentation techniques.

Combo Brows have been instrumental in addressing some of the limitations of microblading, particularly in terms of retention on thick and oily skin types. Adding more pigment using the machine technique enhanced the overall result's longevity. This approach also mitigated the blurring issue commonly associated with microblading, as artists could now employ less dense patterns. Combo Brows provided a more versatile and resilient outcome by combining the precision of microblading lines with the soft, diffused effect of machine-applied powder.

Furthermore, this technique allowed artists to create brows with a more balanced and natural “make-up” appearance, blending the crisp definition of microblading with powder brows's fuller, shaded effect. This adaptability made Combo Brows a popular choice for clients seeking a comprehensive solution that caters to various skin types and aesthetic preferences.

4. Hairstrokes


Hairstrokes as a pigmentation technique has been around for nearly as long as powder brows. However, it has gone through a journey marked by significant developmental shifts, broadly categorized into two distinct eras: the primitive phase and the era of hyperrealism.

“Fences” Pattern

The initial stages of Hairstrokes development, referred to by some experienced artists as the “fences pattern,” represented a rudimentary approach. During this phase, artists, primarily those from the powder brows background, utilized machines to create virtually straight, vertical lines within the brows. These lines, often combined with unnatural shapes and tattoo inks or pigments high in hydrocarbons, resulted in an unnatural and by today's standards, ridiculously unappealing look. This primitive approach lacked the sophistication and subtlety that modern Hairstrokes techniques offer.

Hyperrealism

Years later, a new wave of Hairstrokes emerged, initiated by skilled powder brows artists with strong artistic capabilities. This trend first gained traction in Asian countries, followed by Europe and Russia. These artists mastered creating brows that closely mimicked natural hair growth and direction, achieving a level of hyperrealism. While some referred to this as “nano brows,” this term did not gain as much traction because it once again had no meaning. The hyperrealism was achieved with various cartreidges with multiple needle configurations, and nozzle needles, only some of which could be classified as “nano”. 

Still, the resulting brows were remarkably close to natural brows regarding hair growth and overall appearance. The main critique of this approach, according to experienced artists, was the tendency to create brows that looked overly natural, akin to an overgrown brow. This pursuit of extreme naturalism, while artistically impressive, often led to brows that didn't necessarily enhance the client's features optimally, and typical clients acknowledged the artistic beauty of those but were “afraid” to wear such.

5. The situation in 2024


As we approach 2024, reflecting on the journey of microblading and other brow techniques offers insightful conclusions about current trends.

What has happened to microblading?

Described by many artists as "a ride of a lifetime” today, microblading's trajectory has undergone significant changes. The slowing down of its growth in 2020-2022 and eventual decline since 2022 was not caused merely due to the blurriness of the lines. It was rooted in a more fundamental issue – the damage caused by linear wounds to the papillary dermis. Despite controlled depth (not always achieved), dermatological research shows how these wounds adversely affect the collagen network. The damage often manifests as micro-scarring, altering the skin’s ability to accommodate new pigment particles.

This led to a practical dilemma: even with the thinnest blades, suitable skin, minimal migration, and the use of pigments with lower organic hydrocarbon content, after 3-5 retouches (usually in 1.5-2 years), the lines became blurry, leaving artists with limited options. These compromised brows often had to be transitioned to powder brows and removed via saline or laser treatments. The issue of the impossibility of a perpetual retouching cycle (PRC) is elaborated on our powderbrows.com platform. In practical terms, it means that there is an inevitable problem and potential conflict between the artist and the client “built-in” to the very core of the microblading technique, which has become a growingly serious issue with many skilled practitioners who want to provide the best service possible.

This challenge was somewhat obscured for years due to the continuous influx of new customers. Artists are managed by transitioning clients with visible issues to other treatments. This workaround was accepted as there seemed to be no better alternative, and there was little incentive to highlight this limitation within the industry.

Third Wave of Hairstrokes

The year 2023, particularly its second half, marked a pivotal shift in the brow pigmentation industry, driven by the innovations of dedicated microblading artists. These artists, who had spent years perfecting their craft with the blade, began to explore new techniques to enhance their approach. They sought to refine the process, blending various methods, and eventually, it can be said that they made a breakthrough. Almost simultaneously across Asia, Europe, and Latin America, these microblading artists started creating “combo brows without the blade.” Their method differed from the earlier Hairstrokes era, as they shifted the focus from hyperrealistic, overgrown brows to a more commercially appealing “groomed” brow look. Essentially, they adopted the best aspects of microblading but used the pigmentation machine as their primary tool.

Analyzing the current scenario and considering all the factors discussed earlier, we can appreciate the significance of this development. The microblading market, which is insanely oversaturated, has been craving innovation and progress. The advent of the third wave of hairstrokes appears to be a much-needed breakthrough. Many leaders of prominent brow academies, with firsthand knowledge of industry trends, understand this shift very well. At the onset of 2024, the challenge has been to transition skilled microblading artists and trainers to Hairstrokes smoothly, without causing significant disruptions or conflicts within the community, or as one high profile master put it, “with fewer riots and classic back-stabbing within the academy.”

Many industry leaders have taken An initial strategic step to assert that microblading still holds several advantages over Hairstrokes. While conceptually sound, this positioning should be recognized for what it truly is - a tactical move by industry “generals" to buy time for reorganizing and redirecting their resources. This approach is evident in the changing marketing strategies and strategic recalibrations across the industry as preparations are made for a comprehensive transition to the Hairstrokes technique. This inside look, straight from the epicenter of these changes, offers clear evidence of the industry's direction and the innovative strides being made in brow pigmentation. In other words, we have first-hand knowledge from people in the war rooms, where the actual strategies are discussed. Those talks manifest a much greater and principal turn towards pigmentation, especially hairstrokes, and away from blading than the public messages indicate.

The Dream of Abundance

Amid this, many artists who have dedicated significant time and resources to microblading are now uncertain. They hold onto a vision of "borderless pigmentation," a utopian idea where all techniques are known to every practitioner, allowing for selecting the most suitable technique for each client. However, empirical research and practical observations suggest a different reality.

The current trend analysis indicates that microblading is on a declining trajectory. While it may take time for the third wave of Hairstrokes to supplant microblading fully, the shift seems inevitable. Many artists are acknowledging this change, with many transitioning to the new wave, either publicly or privately. The transition is driven by the understanding that clients generally seek the best technique for their brows, and the perception of what constitutes "the best" is evolving.

What does it mean, in the simplest terms? The situation is similar to the introduction of microblading in 2014. When there are different artists in the same area offering different techniques, then eventually only one will become the most popular, and this is the style that the most average, uninformed customers, based on the most superficial facts, will prefer. In 2023, we ran many A/B tests, and the results are telling. If an average client is presented with all different viable techniques, showing the initial transformation and the healed long-term result, a staggering majority prefers hairstrokes. No matter how much we do love powder brows, and as the team behind powderbrows.com certainly does, the results of such studies do make us take those seriously.

The Impact on Artists

Artists skilled in the second wave of Hairstrokes are poised for substantial success, as their expertise is now more relevant than ever. They possess a skill set that cannot be easily replicated and requires minimal adjustment - perhaps only a slight modification of their existing patterns. However, there are some nuances that they have to consider to really crush it, but those are the details we can not yet include in public.

On the other hand, Powder Brows artists face a significant learning curve to master Hairstrokes effectively. However, motivated by market demand and potential earnings, they are likely to embrace this challenge. A combination of professional growth and the evolving preferences of clients drives the move towards Hairstrokes. Nothing will convince the most dedicated powder brows artists to make this transition more than more and more clients starting to prefer hairstrokes over classic soft ombre brows or any other powder brows style. From that too, we have first-hand knowledge that many soft powder brows artists are developing their hairstrokes brow styles rather eagerly.

In conclusion, while the idealistic vision of a unified approach to brow pigmentation is appealing, the reality of the industry is moving in a different direction. The shift towards the third wave of Hairstrokes represents a significant evolution in brow pigmentation techniques, reshaping the landscape of the industry and the choices available to clients. 2024 will be turbulent, and once again, speed is the key.
 
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Comments
 
Sonia
Saturday, Dec 30, 2023

I am 34 and I have been in the business for 10+ years and I totally agree to this article and the exact same transformations are happening in my state, although it takes time for many to admit to those.

Erika
Thursday, Dec 28, 2023

Heh, not bad. I like the staigthforward approach. Cool ideas, I think that 2024 will be much better than 2023 at least in most EU countries, I think.

Carol
Thursday, Dec 28, 2023

Couldn’t agree more! There changes are already here and we need to adapt to those. I have totally humped abroad with haristrokes and I say, its the best decision I have ever made! Totally worth it in every aspect! I used to do Microblading and at least with one very famous brand – the brows did always blur eventually and turn bluish, probably because of carbon overdose. And I have kept my eye on marketing messages of big producers and those are indeed ridiculous sometimes. Some seem to think that artist are absolutely gullible and do not understand anything, but we do.

Colene
Friday, Dec 22, 2023

Wow, gotta say pretty straightforward stuff, but I like it. I’ve been in the industry for 15 years, and I must say that it really feels like sth is in the air, lol :D

Daisy
Thursday, Dec 21, 2023

I have about 14 years of experience in the industry. Interesting piece, and I must say it made me think. Kind of crazy times we live in and lots of points in this I agree to. We really need a change and as a powder brows artist I feel that hairstrokes is a thing to learn but the problem is that it is not easy at all, there seems to be thousands of versions of this and I am not sure which one is the best.

Alice
Thursday, Dec 21, 2023

I read it and as as an ex-microblading artist I totally agree. This is hell what is going on in 2023 and this article is absolutely correct. If you do not transition, it’s over! :)


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